Are the heavy rains recorded on the planet Earth caused by climate change or is there a correlation between heavy rains and climate change? Difficult to answer in the affirmative or negation. But the most "trumtracks" will surely tell you that no. It is also difficult to put on the account of bad luck or pure chance the climatic "quirks" that the planet has known in recent years.
In the opinion of the German researchers of the Postdam Institute for climate reasearch impact, the climatic disruption causes an alteration of the African monsoon, predicting that the Centre of Mali could receive as much rain as the North of Cameroon or the center of Nigeria, which are characterised by a tropical climate. According to one researcher, "the magnitude of change requires urgent attention." Much more water can be stored in the atmosphere when temperatures rise, and this extra moisture can be released during heavy short-term precipitation.
In their attempt to assess the trend, researchers from the Potsdam Institute for climate research (PIK) relied on a statistical analysis of rainfall data between 1901 and 2010, from thousands of weather stations to around the world. Main conclusion: between 1980 and 2010, there were 12% more extreme events than in a stationary climate (i.e. without climate warming).
They report that Mali-Météo, in its forecasts from June to September 2018, had already alerted to the risk of flooding. Ensuring that it is associated with both overflowing streams and intense rains, the structure in charge of meteorological issues had made a number of recommendations. It states that this year's rains have already exceeded those recorded in 2017, when it still remains four months before the end of 2018.
It is now difficult for the experts to predict with certainty the rainfall conditions. "Climate change creates a temperature upheaval. The expected water figure is sometimes higher or lower than expected. We are sometimes surprised, explains Jean Paul Tchapebong, 2nd Vice-President of climates-Mali.
"We are the first players in climate change. It is true that there are natural phenomena, but first we are responsible for them, "accuses Tchapebong. It calls for an awareness of the population in order to "contain" the phenomenon. "It is during the onset of disasters, with the claims that it generates, that people realize that things are not turning out the way they should," he concludes.